WHO WILL THE DRAGON BITE?

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WHO WILL THE DRAGON BITE?: Analysis of a Possible Naval Battle with China. (6 JUNE ’16) This article is my analysis of a likely naval battle between China & one of its neighbors incl. what America’s involvement could look like. This article won’t deal w/ the ins & outs of political claims, or other concepts—it is simply a military analysis. China’s military expansion & territorial aggressions are parallel to Germany’s in the late 1930’s which led to WW 2. China’s leaders (like Hitler) hope that they can achieve their territorial expansion by bullying their neighbors. And similar to Hitler, at some pt. their neighbor won’t give in. In Hitler’s case, he was able to annex Austria & Czechoslovakia before Poland defied him. In China’s situation it has 2 traditional enemies, Vietnam to the south, & Japan to the east, neither of whom will allow themselves to be intimidated. The Vietnamese navy has already had several modern battles with the Chinese navy; in ’88, they lost a naval battle at Johnson Reef. When China tried to intimidate Vietnam with their army, Vietnam said, bring it on. In ’79, the Chinese attacked & only by ignoring 20,000 casualties were they able to push the Vietnamese back. Today, Chinese State Media keep their people constantly stirred up against Vietnam, repeatedly saying they need to be taught a lesson, and stirred up against Japan by reminding them of Japanese atrocities during WW 2. While Japan’s largest trading partner is China, and in reverse Japan is China’s largest trading partner after the U.S.—none of this is going to count as any deterrence when China’s leaders strike.

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